A new NHL season is upon us, and with it comes the anticipation of which players will shine and which may see a decline in their performance. As we look back at the standout performances of the previous season, it’s clear that replicating those feats will be a tough task. From Auston Matthews’ incredible 69-goal season to Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov reaching the coveted 100-assist mark, the bar has been set high for the upcoming season.
Rachel Doerrie, a seasoned data consultant with a background in NHL analytics, has identified several players who may be prime candidates for regression in the 2024-25 season. Using her projections model, she has pinpointed those most likely to see a significant drop in production, whether it be in goals, points, or overall performance. One of the key factors contributing to this regression is shooting percentage, with many players surpassing their expected rates in the previous season.
While some players may not regress to their career averages, it is expected that they will return closer to their true talent level. This adjustment could lead to a decrease in goal production for these players, as they face new challenges, different team environments, or tougher matchups. It’s important to note that the players listed below are just a few examples of those likely to experience a decline in performance, as there are many variables at play in the dynamic world of professional hockey.
Top NHL Regression Candidates for the 2024-25 Season
1. Auston Matthews
Auston Matthews had a phenomenal season in 2023-24, scoring an impressive 69 goals and solidifying his status as one of the league’s top goal-scorers. However, Doerrie’s projections suggest that Matthews may see a regression in his goal production for the upcoming season. Factors such as shooting percentage, line combinations, and defensive matchups could all contribute to a potential decline in his scoring output. While Matthews is undeniably talented, it’s important to temper expectations for another record-breaking season.
2. Zach Hyman
Zach Hyman is another player who may be due for regression in the 2024-25 season. After a strong performance with the Edmonton Oilers last year, Hyman faces a new team environment with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Adjusting to a new system, linemates, and playing style could impact his overall production on the ice. While Hyman has proven to be a reliable scorer in the past, it’s possible that he may see a dip in his numbers as he adapts to his new surroundings.
3. Connor McDavid
Connor McDavid, widely regarded as one of the best players in the NHL, reached the impressive milestone of 100 assists in the previous season. However, Doerrie’s projections indicate that McDavid may experience a regression in his assist totals for the upcoming season. Factors such as line chemistry, power play opportunities, and defensive strategies employed by opposing teams could all play a role in McDavid’s potential decline. While McDavid’s skill and talent are undeniable, it’s important to consider the various factors that could impact his performance moving forward.
Conclusion
As we look ahead to the 2024-25 NHL season, it’s clear that several high-profile players may be facing regression in their performance. Factors such as shooting percentage, team dynamics, and individual talent levels all play a role in determining a player’s success on the ice. While some players may defy expectations and continue to excel, it’s important to acknowledge the potential for regression among even the most elite athletes. By keeping an eye on these key players and their performance throughout the season, fans and analysts alike can gain valuable insights into the ever-evolving world of professional hockey.