Economic activity in Russia has reached 79% of the pre-crisis level, said the head of Ministry of economic development Maxim Reshetnikov.
“At the moment we have reached the level in 79% of pre-crisis. The level of economic activity,” the Minister said at the government hour in the state Duma. According to him, the activity started to increase since may 12, when the regions began to gradually remove the restrictions of the quarantine.
But as pointed out by Reshetnikov, “a significant amount of the economy is, what is called the freeze”. This non-food retail, catering and tourism.
By the end of may the state support of the economy and the population amounted to 3.3 trillion rubles. Support covered 62 sectors of the economy affected by the pandemic, employing “more than 6 million people, including 3.3 million in small and medium business”, — said Reshetnikov.
“We expect to reduce the economy this year to 5%. Reduced consumer and investment demand,” — said the Minister. According to him, the forecast of growth of Russian GDP in 2021 at 2.8% will be updated.
the Real incomes of the population in Russia will decrease by 6% by the end of the year, said Reshetnikov. According to him, anti-crisis measures of the state support slowed the decline in revenue. “If they were not taken, the decline of revenues in the second quarter of 2020 would be significantly more — up to 7.5%”, — said the Minister at the government hour in the state Duma. According to forecasts of Ministry of economic development, next year incomes and wages will grow by 3% in real terms. The unemployment rate in Russia by the end of the year will be 5.7%.
the Biggest decline in income and GDP is expected in the summer. Russia’s GDP will fall in the second quarter of not less than 9.5 percent annually, and real disposable income by 6% in annual terms, predicts the Ministry of economic development (MED).
the Bank of Russia expects GDP decline in the second quarter by 8%. the Economic situation in Russia is aggravated by the outbreak of world economy recession. Significant global oil reserves limit the recovery in oil prices. In the optimistic scenario, the average price of oil will be the end of the year $30 per barrel, says the MAYOR.
According to the Ministry, the deal is OPEC+ has improved the position, but it won’t seriously change the balance of supply and demand in the market of oil and oil products.
Over the past 25 years, Russia’s GDP fell so much in the default 1998 (to -8.8% in the third quarter and -9,1% in the fourth quarter), as well as in the crisis year of 2009 (-9,2% and -11,2% in the first and second quarters respectively).
Unemployment in Russia in April accelerated to 5.8% — the highest level since April of 2016, follows from the data of Rosstat. The number of unemployed in Russia rose to 800 thousand people to 4.3 million people aged 15 years and older (5.8 percent of the workforce in accordance with the methodology of the International labour organization). The number of unemployed amounted to 1 January 2020 3.5 million people, according to Rosstat. The increase in actual unemployment in Russia up to 5-6 million people according to the methodology of the International labour organization by the end of 2020 it is possible, but needs anti-crisis measures to maintain employment, according to the Ministry of labour and social protection of the Russian Federation.
