the Index of openness of the economy in the regions of Russia – the lifting of restrictions increased to 89.6% from dekorativnogo level, estimated by the Ministry of economic development of Russia on the results of daily monitoring.
the Data took into account the abolition of the regime of self-isolation and permit system from June 9 in Moscow, the largest regional economy in the country.
In late April, economy of regions were maximally closed: 28% of jobs in the country were subject to restrictions.
the Index is calculated from April of this year, when a quarantine was imposed and takes into account workers in sectors of the economy that are not under restriction to the total number of the economically active population of the region.
the Russian regions gradually began to remove restrictions in may under the coordination of the government. Regional leaders are responsible for making decisions about the removal of restrictions or an extension with the situation.
on June 8, according to the Ministry of economic development 27 regions moved to the first stage of the removal of restrictions, 23 regions in the second.
the Bank of Russia expects the recovery of the national economy in the third quarter of 2020, according to the information-analytical comments of the regulator. According to preliminary estimates from Rosstat, in the first quarter of 2020, annual GDP growth amounted to 1.6%.
Russia’s GDP in the second quarter after rising in the first quarter will proceed to decrease. But in the next quarter will start recovery after gradual removal of quarantine restrictions.
However in the second half in annual terms, GDP will decrease. By the end of 2020, Russia’s GDP will fall by 4-6%, but the estimates largely depend on the timing and speed of the easing of restrictive measures, said the Central Bank.
Russia’s GDP may fall in the second quarter by 8% predicted earlier, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Under the baseline scenario of the Central Bank the budget deficit in Russia on the background of the coronavirus will amount to 5-6% of GDP. In 2019 Russian GDP grew by 1.3%.
Generalnazionalny the economic recovery plan focused on GDP growth not less than 2.5% by the end of 2021, the reduction of unemployment to 5% and the increase in real incomes. The plan was discussed on June 2 during the online meeting, Prime Minister Mikhail mishustina with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
the implementation of the plan is scheduled to begin in July. It contains about 500 specific activities, and the cost of its implementation about two years will be about 5 trillion rubles.
the Plan consists of three stages. The first phase – stabilization of the situation until the end of the third quarter of 2020. “The main thing we need to achieve in this period is to prevent further decline in people’s incomes,” — said Mishustin.
the Second stage — up to the II quarter of 2021. “During this period”, according to mishustina, it is necessary “to complete the process of economic recovery, reduce unemployment, ensure growth of incomes to a level that is comparable with the level of last year.”
the Third stage – “is III-IV quarters of 2021.” In this period, the government expects to “achieve sustained long-term economic growth.” Expected GDP growth above pre-crisis pace. “We will reduce poverty and will increase the number of citizens whose income exceeds the subsistence level. We will make every effort to the number of employed in small and medium-sized business has reached a crisis level,” — said Mishustin.
it is Planned to create a social Treasury for the targeted support of the population. The new Agency should improve the efficiency of care. We will introduce a single approach to calculate social assistance – given the composition of the family and its average income. According to the Ministry of economic development, this year, real disposable incomes will decline by 3.8%, however, in the following expected growth of 2.8%.