Rachel Doerrie, a professional data consultant with a focus on data communication and modeling, has provided an insightful ranking of the top 32 prospects for the 2024 NHL Draft. With the Stanley Cup playoffs in full swing and the draft order nearly set, NHL teams are turning their attention to the upcoming draft and free agency.
This year’s draft class is particularly interesting, with a high level of variation in how players are ranked by different teams. While there is consensus on the top prospect, the rankings diverge significantly beyond the number one spot. This discrepancy highlights the subjective nature of player evaluation in hockey.
One notable trend in this year’s draft is the abundance of quality defensemen available at the top of the draft. Up to six defensemen could potentially be selected in the top 10 picks, all of whom are projected to be top-four defenders at the NHL level. This emphasis on defense reflects the importance of strong defensive play in today’s game.
Doerrie’s rankings are primarily driven by a data-driven model, with some adjustments made based on the “eye test.” While scouting reports and industry whispers play a role in the final rankings, the model forms the foundation of the evaluation process. As the draft approaches, the rankings will be further refined to incorporate combine testing, positional value, and industry intelligence.
It’s important to note that public rankings may differ from team-specific mock drafts due to considerations such as team culture, fit with organizations, and overall draft strategy. Each team approaches the draft with its own priorities and preferences, leading to variation in player evaluations across the league.
At the top of the prospect list is Macklin Celebrini, a forward from Boston University. Celebrini is hailed as a franchise cornerstone center with the potential to make an immediate impact at the NHL level. His well-rounded game, offensive creativity, and strong hockey sense make him a highly coveted prospect in this year’s draft class.
While Celebrini may not be considered a generational talent, he is viewed as a transformative player who can accelerate a team’s rebuild process. His ability to drive play offensively, excel in transition, and contribute in all areas of the ice set him apart as a top prospect in the 2024 NHL Draft.
With six weeks remaining until the draft, teams will continue to evaluate and assess the available talent, aiming to make informed decisions that will shape the future of their organizations. The excitement and anticipation surrounding the draft will only continue to build as the event approaches, promising to deliver a new wave of young talent to the NHL.